Chrome’s Continuing Ascent

Chrome 5.0 beta came out yesterday, and I realized how fast the browser has been conquering the web. About two months ago, I wrote a short article about how Chrome was the only significantly growing browser. I stated at the time that “there are many more people who would love to use Chrome than people who use it already, and they will continue to join the clan.” My confidence in Chrome however, was not shared by commenters of the post. Most people seemed to think that Google’s browser was growing only because of punctual circumstances. It is true that the situation wasn’t perfectly clear. Chrome had just launched on Mac OS, Microsoft had had to introduce their browser ballot screen in Europe after losing a case in front of the EC, and a big worldwide advertising campain had just pulled attention to the browser. If two months is enough for those effects to fade away, it does not show. Google Chrome continues to grow at a steady pace, and other browsers have a hard time keeping up with its pace. Chrome has now clearly superseded Safari as the major Webkit browser. Here’s an up-to-date graph provided by Clicky.

Chrome clearly shows little intent of slowing down. Ars Technica made an even more readable graph that sums up the evolution of these browsers in the last month (see below). Should other browsers be worried? I’d say yes. Safari keeps its position, and has little interest in growing. It shares its engine with Google Chrome, and Chrome’s growth should not tamper any of Apple’s plans. It’s even a good thing for them. One in ten users are now browsing with webkit browsers, which means that webmasters cannot go without testing their websites against it. Safari users can only see their browsing experience improve. Opera, however, does not seem to profit from its victory against Microsoft in the European courts and is even losing market-share. I’m not a fan of Opera. The browser feels like something in between Chrome and Firefox to me, without enough clear advantages to stand out from either. I do believe that it’s underrated however, and it’s a shame that it doesn’t succeed because it is an innovating browser in all respects. Firefox still stands in second place, which makes it the most powerful browser in my opinion. Internet Explorer is in first place because it is pre-installed on many systems, but almost nobody uses it “intentionally”. That is why so many versions of Internet Explorer co-exist. IE 6 is still used after all these years! The big looser it still IE. Microsoft is clearly loosing its market-share to Google. The people at Redmond know this, and they are acting upon it. IE had made a lot of progress in these last two versions to catch up on other browsers. Unfortunately, it still has a very bad reputation which makes most of its progress go unnoticed. Microsoft’s noisy announcement about complying to the H.264 “standard” (which isn’t truly one) are probably part of a strategy to reconquer that reputation over time.

Will Chrome continue to grow?

Chrome’s market-share makes it notable, but if it were not for its rapid growth, it wouldn’t be a force to be reckoned. Chrome makes the news because it is the fastest growing browser, but if that grow was to be tampered it would simply become uninteresting in commercial terms. Firefox still represents the anti-IE resistance, the fight against Microsoft domination of the web experience (which is admittedly already dead, if not symbolically at least de facto).

If you look at the numbers closely, you can already see Chrome’s numbers slacking. Chrome is still set to grow consequently, but it is not going to be the world’s biggest browser. It is too early to see where Chrome will stop, but my wild guess would be somewhere near 20%, maybe a bit higher. A more intriguing question is where IE is going to stop decreasing. When Chrome has stopped its ascent? It may be still to early to tell.

What does that mean?

Numbers may be meaningless without analysis, but analysis is meaningless if it just explains numbers. What’s really important to us is the effect that Chrome will have on the future of the web. Is Google Chrome really different from other browsers?

The clue’s in the name. Chrome’s user interface (UI) was designed with one thing in mind: minimizing “chrome”. Minimizing the ” visible graphical interface features” of the application. This means that Chrome’s goal is not the browser’s features, but the disappearance of the browser as such. Google wants to pull attention away from the browser and towards web applications, its bread and butter. Google is the first company to design a browser with that as a primary objective, and it sells. Why? Because when we browse, we want to see the web, not the browser itself.

Chrome’s innovations in terms of UI—as well as the omni-bar and other new features—are welcome. They bring a fresh view of existing interface problems, and they are already being imitated by the future Firefox 4 and the current KDE SC 4.4 desktop.

I’m glad for Google Chrome. It’s an innovating browser that puts the web before anything else. I’m not overly convinced, and the main reason I’m using Chromium right now is because I’m on a netbook. Lack of proper integration (particularly on Linux) makes the user experience somewhat lacking. I’m disappointed by this point. Integration to the windows desktop is not in Apple’s interest because they want to attract users to their own OS, but Google should be above that. Of course, things will be clearer when Chrome OS will be officially released on Google’s partner netbooks. Until then, we can only speculate on Google’s strategy.

Here’s a light-hearted demonstration of the latest Chrome 5.0′s speed by Google. Have fun!